06-08-18 Path to level 5 autonomy
The long way to get autonomous...
Some of the great challenges autonomous cars ( i.e. level 5) will have to face, can be law and citizens acceptance. The first is wrapped in lobbing, market/ industry fears, adaption and context complexity, liabilities (…) ; The second would be a matter of marketing, consistency of technology, hence stats. It could be a challenging leap and a turning page towards some unknown paths, but isn’t that what evolution is all about?
Johann Jungwirth is visibly frustrated. In Hanover to present the latest iteration of the SElf-DRIving Car, or Sedric, Volkswagen Group's chief digital officer knows the industry is locked in a battle with tech companies for leadership in autonomous driving. The former Apple engineer fears European regulations are hampering efforts to bring to market the battery-powered concept, which management has already decided will move into series production.
CHALLENGES
"My goal is to be in the first U.S. cities with driverless cars in 2021," Jungwirth said. After that comes a planned rollout in China, Singapore and Middle Eastern cities such as Dubai. "And then comes Europe. We would love to [come earlier] since it’s our home market, but the legislation just isn’t there."
Every year 1.25 million people die and as many as 50 million are injured in road traffic accidents worldwide, according to United Nations statistics. Every year children, the elderly or the physically challenged have little or no access to individual mobility. And every year half a million metric tons of CO2 emissions in Germany alone could be saved by eliminating the endless search for a parking space, which studies show account for up to 30 percent of inner city traffic.
GEO STRATEGY
(…) Virtually the entire (EUROPEAN) continent is governed by the UN’s Vienna Convention on Road Traffic. This largely restricts the use of driverless cars on public roads to very limited testing scenarios and legalizing their commercial operation is years away from becoming reality.
"We really have a competitive disadvantage because of the UNECE," said Jungwirth, who worries that those late to the market might end up fighting over the scraps left behind. "The winner could take it all."
(…) Fearing cash-rich tech companies can capitalize on their expertise in artificial intelligence and machine learning, most major carmakers are spending heavily to keep pace.
Renault unveiled its EZ-GO concept in Geneva that could form the basis for a driverless car fleet. Daimler plans to pilot a highly autonomous car fleet in California in the second half of next year. Rival BMW looks to test in China and has formed its own consortium around Intel and Mobileye.
All are hoping to bring the technology to market sometime early next decade. Between both tech and auto companies, AlixPartners estimates some 56 billion euros will be invested this year, up nearly tenfold from 2015.
In the lead, however, is industry pioneer Waymo, a spinoff from Google, which has already racked up 7 million miles of testing on public roads since it started nine years ago.
Ironically, Waymo can thank VW for its birth. Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin first became interested in driverless cars after learning about a robotic car race funded by the U.S. Defense Department. They hired many of the Stanford University scientists who worked on the Volkswagen Stanley, which won the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenge in 2005, including Sebastian Thrun, the original brains behind Waymo.
Now ready to launch its own branded mobility service starting this year in Arizona and California, Waymo is looking to branch out. With an eye toward Europe, it already demonstrated its prototype Chrysler Pacifica in Italy in early June during an investor day held by industrial partner Fiat Chrysler Automobiles.
With its sturdy, monolithic appearance and tree trunk-like body pillars, the Sedric gives occupants the feeling they are safely ensconced in a vehicle impervious to damage. Waymo meanwhile has to make do with a bulky laser scanner on the roof, which Krafcik says assures passengers concerns through an outward symbol of the vehicle’s intelligence.
Unsurprisingly, the Waymo CEO downplayed the need for cars such as Sedric that need to master all situations. “We’re pretty skeptical on Level 5,” he said, before adding “It will take decades and I don’t even think it’s necessary.”
Jungwirth disagrees. “The technology is almost ready. I would love to see the legislation support us,” he said. “Testing is fine, but what we need is commercial operation in order to scale up.”
As they say “Let the games begin…” or continue…
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Source ANE
